Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Can The Bills Make The Playoffs?

Right now, the Buffalo Bills are 2-0 for the first time since 2003. In 2003, Buffalo finished the season 6-10. As a Bills fan, I know not to get overly optimistic. Two wins are nice, but in the long run they don't mean much of anything. The question is: are these two wins just flukes to begin another mediocre year or can Buffalo actually break their playoff drought of 8 (I think) years?

The Case For:

Buffalo's two wins are over teams that both made the playoffs last season, Seattle and Jacksonville. On paper, these were two of the toughest teams on Buffalo's schedule, which is one of the easiest in the league. Now, Buffalo gets in consecutive weeks Oakland at home and St. Louis on the road. Oakland may fire Head Coach Lane Kiffin any day now and St. Louis is the worst team in the league after two weeks. Buffalo should coast to 4-0. From there, a record of 6-6 in the last 12 should get the job done.

How realistic is that? Consider that even lowly Oakland stomped Kansas City, who the Bills will play later this season. Also on tap are games against San Francisco (mediocre at best), Miami 2x (rebuilding and struggling), and NY Jets 2x (a team Buffalo swept last season). Throw in wins against KC, SF, Miami, and a split against NY and you're looking at four more wins. Then then Buffalo would need to win 1-2 games more of off this roster of teams

Denver
San Diego
New England (without Brady) 2x
Arizona
Cleveland

Denver has no D. San Diego can't win close games. New England is without Brady. Arizona is well, Arizona. They may be better but they have a history of well, sucking. Cleveland has looked awful through two games.

Now for the football reasons for. Trent Edwards is playing very, very well. He's not throwing INTs. He's playing careful, efficient football, and through two games he's been better than any Bills QB since Bledsoe's first year in town. If he keeps playing like this, he'll take the pressure off Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch and Fred "Action" Jackson and give the Bills a chance to win each and every Sunday.

On defense, Marcus Stroud and Kawika Mitchell have strengthened the Bills front seven, which previously had been easy to rush upon. Both Seattle and Jacksonville found it difficult to run on Buffalo, which made them one-dimensional and forced many 3rd and longs.

The Case Against:
Buffalo doesn't have a history of winning in recent years and it may take time to learn how to win, especially with such a young team. It's easy to say what games they "should" win on paper, but can they focus hard for 17 weeks and not suffer lapses against inferior teams? Can they continue to make plays in the clutch? This remains to be seen.

Also, it remains to be seen whether Trent Edwards can maintain his strong play at QB. He's only a second year player and growing pains are to be expected. If he starts throwing picks or loses his accuracy, it's over for the Bills, plain and simple.

Furthermore, both of the offenses Buffalo has faced so far have experienced severe injury problems. Seattle was without top WRs Deion Branch, Bobby Engram, and Ben Obomanu and lost Nate Burelson during the game. Jacksonville was without C Brad Meester, G Vince Manuwai, and G Maurice Williams. Sure, it's easy to stop offenses that are in such a shambles but can the Bills new look front hold up against full strength squads.

VERDICT: Yes, the Bills can make the postseason, but in doesn't guarantee that they will. The bottom line is that this is a cohesive, motivated, and (for now at least) healthy team that is looking at a very easy schedule. If they maintain the current level of play (and Dick Jauron's Bills squads have tended actually to be slow-starters that get hot late), Buffalo can absolutely expect to see action beyond Week 17. For Bills die-hards like myself, that would be an exciting development indeed.

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